Climate change and its threats to Tajikistan
Climate change is a serious problem for Tajikistan, as the country is vulnerable to it and has low adaptive capacity. The World Bank considers Tajikistan as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in Central Asia.
Tajikistan ranks 111th out of 180 countries to which the University of Notre Dame has assigned a global adaptation index and ranks 78th among the most vulnerable countries and 52nd among low-income countries. Compared to other countries, its current vulnerability index is manageable.
Glaciers continue to melt and deplete in Tajikistan due to climate change, which led to a problem in the republic, as glaciers and snow reserves are the main source of irrigation water. About 30% of the ice cover has been lost since 1930; Currently, their melting rate is 0.5% -0.8% per year. The largest glacier in Tajikistan - Fedchenko Pirahi, which has a length of about 1 km, has lost about 5 km of ice since the beginning of the 20th century.
According to the Third National Report of Tajikistan for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, climate change is expected to lead to: (a) an increase in temperature, (b) greater variability in precipitation, (c) the rapid melting of glaciers and (d) the rapid melting of glaciers. an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events caused by climate change.
Climatic phenomena (such as floods, droughts, avalanches, landslides) regularly destroy land, crops, infrastructure, and sources of income. Annual losses from climate change and extreme climatic events are estimated at $ 600 million or 4.8% of Tajikistan's gross domestic product. Rising temperatures and increasing rainfall contribute to climate change. According to forecasts, by 2030 the temperature will rise to about 2.3 ° C. Tajikistan's high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors makes the country extremely vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather phenomena.The insufficient human and institutional capacity needed to effectively reduce and manage climate risks and impacts makes it difficult to reduce vulnerability to climate change and create sustainable levels necessary to combat climate change. Predictable climate change not only lags behind past progress, but can also lead to increased poverty by lowering agricultural productivity, higher food prices, and the spread of infectious diseases.
Tajikistan's energy sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events. This vulnerability is a concern since there is a strong dependence on hydropower: over 98% of the electricity in Tajikistan is generated by hydropower plants.
Hydroelectric power plants account for 93.9% of the total installed capacity, generating 16.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity.
Agriculture is one of the priority sectors where the majority part of Tajikistan's population depends on livelihoods, incomes and employment, and it is vulnerable to climate change. Drought caused by climate change can lead to depletion of irrigated land, lower capacity and productivity as well as loss of crop and livestock.
Risks associated with climate change and adaptation measures to reduce these risks for the population and key sectors of the economy are important elements of the National Development Strategy of Tajikistan for the period until 2030.
During signing the International Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in Paris in December 2015, Tajikistan prepared an approximate and national contribution to the assessment of climate processes and various scenarios for adoption. Further steps are being taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan signed the Paris Agreement on April 22, 2016, and the parliament approved it in February 16, 2017.
Source: Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer of the Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.