In the coming day in the separate areas of Khatlon region will remain dust storm. 19-20/09 in the several areas of Sughd region wind increase up to 15-20m/s.
Adverse impacts of climate change in Tajikistan
The territory of Tajikistan and its population are subject to the active influence of various natural processes that can lead to natural disasters. Of the most common natural hazards in the world, more than 20 occur in Tajikistan.
The ruggedness of the relief of Tajikistan, modern tectonic processes, a developed hydrographic network, intense precipitation in characteristic areas, and the continental climate are mainly natural environments that cause the intensive development of geodynamic processes and phenomena, such as landslides, mudslides, snow avalanches, etc., which contribute to the accumulation of loose debris in watercourses and the formation of mudflows and catastrophic floods. These phenomena cause significant damage to the national economy of the republic every year.
Annual losses from climate change and extreme climate events are estimated at 600 million USD, or 4.8% of Tajikistan's gross domestic product (GDP). In this regard, it is very important to ensure the protection of economic objects from the threat of floods and inundations, to guarantee the use of floodplain lands, to prevent the consequences of droughts and other natural disasters, which ultimately solves the economic, environmental, demographic and social problems of the republic.
Mudslides are the most destructive. In a very short time, they carry out a huge amount of debris.
The speed of their flows can reach more than 5-10 m/s, while moving blocks of stone weighing several tons, they destroy many national economic objects.
The areas with the highest mudflow activity are the basins of the Vakhsh, Obikhingou, Kyzylsu, Pyanj and Zeravshan rivers, where an average of 70-100 mudflows occur annually. The highest mudflow activity is observed in April (35% of all mudflows) and in May (28% of all mudflows). In the foothill and mid-mountain high-altitude zones, mudslides and catastrophic floods are observed mainly in the spring, while in the high-altitude zone in the summer. Heavy precipitation is the main cause of mudslides (80%).
High air temperatures can lead to rapid melting of snow and ice reserves and create conditions for the formation of glacial mudflows. Also, mudflows often occur as a result of the breakout of lakes formed by the pulsation of glaciers and moraine deposits.
Thus, due to climate change, the number and consequences of natural disasters, including catastrophic floods and mudslides, are increasing, which causes significant material damage: productive land is out of circulation, and settlements, roads, bridges, irrigation channels, hydraulic structures and other objects of the national economy are exposed to their destructive effect. Taking preventive and adaptive measures can reduce the impact of natural disasters and, in some cases, prevent damage.
Changes in temperature and precipitation in Tajikistan
Between 1940 and 2020, Tajikistan experienced a temperature increase of 0.1°C - 0.2°C for each decade of this period. Increase the number of days with a temperature of 40ºC or higher. The highest temperature increases were observed in Dangara (1.2°C) and Dushanbe (1.0°C). Mountain areas experienced an increase of 0.3ºC - 0.5ºC, while in alpine areas the increase was 0.2ºC - 0.4ºC. Recent warming trends recorded in the period 2001-2010 show that the average temperature for each decade was 0.8°C higher than the average for areas located at 1000-2500 m above the sea. In the alpine zone, the observed increase was 0.2°C above normal. Temperatures were higher by an average of 0.1°C - 1.1°C in winter and 0.1°C - 1.3°C in spring. Autumn temperatures in all mountainous areas exceeded the average by 0.6°C - 1.1°C. The annual precipitation has increased in the period from 1940 to 2020 by 5% -10%. There was a relatively significant increase in precipitation during the summer periods from 1976 to 2012. In most regions of the republic, the number of days with precipitation intensity of 5 millimeters or more has increased, especially in the central highlands. The number of days with heavy precipitation (30 mm per day) increased in the foothills of the country, such as in the Hissar valley. Avalanches are a growing concern; in 2002-2006, avalanches caused the death of more than 50 people. In 2010, an avalanche blocked a strategic road linking Dushanbe with Northern Tajikistan.
Future climate change scenarios
Scenarios for air temperature. Compared to 1961-1990, by 2030, annual average temperatures will increase by 0.2°C - 0.4°C in all regions of the country; this coincides with trends observed over the past 15-20 years. In winter, the maximum expected temperature increase is about 2°C. Both in summer and winter, the temperature will rise even in the Pamirs and in the Hindu Kush mountains. In fact, temperatures in mountainous areas will increase at a faster rate than in flat and arid areas. By the end of the 21st century, warming is expected to exceed 5°C in the southern regions of Tajikistan, as well as in the mountains of Central Tajikistan and the Western Pamirs (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Predicted temperature change.
Precipitation scenarios. Precipitation scenarios are based on three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) and it is assumed that there will be no significant changes in precipitation in large river basins such as the Vakhsh and Pyanj (Figure 2). However, changes in maximum and minimum precipitation levels will increase as the amount of rain increases and the amount of snowfall decreases. Scenarios assume that there will be large changes in the intensity of rain and its geographical distribution, with a decrease in annual precipitation in the southern regions of the country. According to forecasts, summer times will be wetter and winter times will be dry, which may lead to flooding and longer periods of drought.
Figure 2: Predicted precipitation.
Source: Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.